Unleashing the Next Big Thing: Post-Hype Prospects with Breakout Potential
Are you ready to discover the hidden gems in the baseball world that could become the next big sensation?
Predicting the success of young players is like trying to solve a complex puzzle. While evaluators have their clues, the outcome is far from certain. Some focus on the results, while others delve into physical projections and process statistics. But even with a perfect system, factors like injuries and team dynamics can unexpectedly boost or hinder a player's performance.
This presents an opportunity for savvy fantasy managers to uncover undervalued players who have been overlooked or moved to the sidelines. Last year, I identified Mickey Moniak as a 'buy-low' addition, and he rewarded me with an impressive 24-homer, 110 wRC+ season. I also recommended Ke'Bryan Hayes (65 wRC+) and Forrest Whitley (13.50 ERA, now in NPB), highlighting the volatility of these suggestions.
Before we dive in, let's remember that these players have the potential to break out and become fantasy stars. While there's no guarantee, they possess the signs of a promising future. The names mentioned here are not 'must-adds', but they could be high-risk, high-reward additions to your fantasy roster.
Post-Hype Prospects with Breakout Potential
- Dylan Crews (OF, Washington Nationals)
After winning the Golden Spikes Award and a National Championship with LSU in 2023, Dylan Crews was considered a 'can't-miss' prospect. However, he faced stiff competition from Paul Skenes, who turned out to be quite good. Despite this, Crews dominated the minors, posting a 136 wRC+ in his first 35 games and a 117 in his first full season in 2024.
In his first professional season, he ended with eight homers, 10 steals, and a .795 OPS in Triple-A, leading fans to predict a late 2024 debut. While he did break into the big league lineup, he struggled to make the expected impact, posting a .631 OPS with a 77 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR in his first 'full season' with the Nationals in 2025.
Despite these numbers, Crews' excellent batted-ball data from his 2024 Triple-A stint should not be overlooked. His above-average bat speed (73.3 mph) has resulted in solid marks in average exit velocity (89.7) and barrel rate (9.7%). If he can adjust his approach to channel his power to the pull side, he could double his homer tally in 2026.
Crews' speed tool hasn't disappeared either. With sprint speed and range above the 80th percentile, he will impact the game throughout the season. If he can reduce his strikeouts, more balls in play could mean more stolen base and extra base chances. Given that this will be his third season facing big league pitching, the expectation is that he will be able to do that.
At the time of writing, Crews' ADP is in the 160-165 range, behind fellow outfielders Brenton Doyle and Chandler Simpson. The upside Crews provides represents excellent value in that area of the Draft. While a lot has to go right for the former #7 overall prospect, he has the tools to threaten the 20/30 range as Washington's everyday outfielder next season.
- Mick Abel (SP, Minnesota Twins)
After ending the 2024 season as the #49 prospect in baseball, Mick Abel graduated to the big leagues with the Phillies. After just six starts, he was traded to the Minnesota Twins as part of the Jhoan Duran deal, leaving him as part of a rebuilding Twins rotation.
On paper, his start in Minnesota wasn't great. Abel posted an 8.36 ERA in four appearances, including two after being relegated to a bullpen role. However, his last start could be a sign of things to come. He went six scoreless innings against his former team, striking out nine Phillies and walking just one.
In that game, Abel showcased the arsenal that made him a top-50 prospect. 73% of his 73 pitches were strikes, including a 45% CSW% on his fastball and 67% on his slider. If the Twins can utilize his arsenal effectively, even if it means simplifying his six-pitch repertoire, he could be a valuable addition to the rotation.
At the time of writing, Abel is on the outside looking in. The Twins still have Pablo López and Joe Ryan atop their staff, and they'll stay there until at least deadline season. After that, there are 11 options on the Twins' 40-man to fill the final 3/4 spots. Among them are intriguing fantasy options like Bailey Ober and Zebby Matthews, as well as prospect arms to track like Connor Prielipp and David Festa.
The good news for Abel believers is that his ADP is around pick 585, making him a potential steal. If he can utilize the momentum he started to gain at the end of last season, he could factor into the latter half of the rotation in the first few months of the season.
- Jordan Lawlar (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Jordan Lawlar, who was once considered the 'future shortstop' in the desert, is now in a fight for a roster spot with Tim Tawa and Ildemaro Vargas. Despite being above Triple-A-level (18 HR, .328 AVG in 91 games), his production tanks when he joins the big league club (.478 OPS in 42 games).
Lawlar's struggles have left fantasy managers worried that he will never be more than a '4A' player. However, the tools that made him so intriguing are still present. Despite average bat speed and a compact frame, he's able to generate elite exit velocities. His power tool, mixed with above-average plate knowledge and ability to barrel the ball, is a solid skill set to build on.
The problem remains that all of these numbers crater once he gets to the big leagues. However, with only 42 big league games under his belt, and his two stints over a year apart, there's a chance that Lawlar's struggles are simply down to a lack of exposure to big league competition.
Lawlar is currently projected to open the season on the major league roster and will spend the spring working with the big league club. Fantasy managers should be hoping that this exposure will allow him to get back to the 20/30 threat he was in the minors with the Diamondbacks. Considering his current draft spot is outside the top-400, he represents intriguing upside.
Bonus! Drew Gilbert (OF, San Francisco Giants)
Drew Gilbert, who introduced himself to the baseball world with a walk-off grand slam in the NCAA Tournament, is now a member of the Giants' big league roster. He's reunited with his former college coach, Tony Vitello, in the Bay. Since being drafted in the first round by Houston in 2022, he's been traded twice.
Gilbert has above-average skills at the plate that started to come through in the majors but were truly on display in Triple-A. He has more pop than one would expect from a 5'9" frame and possesses good bat-to-ball skills and plate knowledge. However, he hasn't been able to produce hard contact consistently enough to make an impact.
If Gilbert can get his MLB metrics closer to his Triple-A marks, he could break out in a big way. At the time of writing, Gilbert is sitting in the ~720 ADP range. In dynasty formats, the lack of clarity regarding the amount of at-bats he will get could make him an intriguing buy-low option to stash on the bench.
